bsvars - Bayesian Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Provides fast and efficient procedures for Bayesian analysis of Structural Vector Autoregressions. This package estimates a wide range of models, including homo-, heteroskedastic, and non-normal specifications. Structural models can be identified by adjustable exclusion restrictions, time-varying volatility, or non-normality. They all include a flexible three-level equation-specific local-global hierarchical prior distribution for the estimated level of shrinkage for autoregressive and structural parameters. Additionally, the package facilitates predictive and structural analyses such as impulse responses, forecast error variance and historical decompositions, forecasting, verification of heteroskedasticity, non-normality, and hypotheses on autoregressive parameters, as well as analyses of structural shocks, volatilities, and fitted values. Beautiful plots, informative summary functions, and extensive documentation including the vignette by Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2410.15090> complement all this. The implemented techniques align closely with those presented in Lütkepohl, Shang, Uzeda, & Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2404.11057>, Lütkepohl & Woźniak (2020) <doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103862>, and Song & Woźniak (2021) <doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.174>. The 'bsvars' package is aligned regarding objects, workflows, and code structure with the R package 'bsvarSIGNs' by Wang & Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.bsvarSIGNs>, and they constitute an integrated toolset.

Last updated 5 days ago

bayesian-inferenceeconometricsvector-autoregressionopenblascppopenmp

7.60 score 43 stars 1 dependents 28 scripts 769 downloads

bsvarSIGNs - Bayesian SVARs with Sign, Zero, and Narrative Restrictions

Implements state-of-the-art algorithms for the Bayesian analysis of Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) identified by sign, zero, and narrative restrictions. The core model is based on a flexible Vector Autoregression with estimated hyper-parameters of the Minnesota prior and the dummy observation priors as in Giannone, Lenza, Primiceri (2015) <doi:10.1162/REST_a_00483>. The sign restrictions are implemented employing the methods proposed by Rubio-Ramírez, Waggoner & Zha (2010) <doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00578.x>, while identification through sign and zero restrictions follows the approach developed by Arias, Rubio-Ramírez, & Waggoner (2018) <doi:10.3982/ECTA14468>. Furthermore, our tool provides algorithms for identification via sign and narrative restrictions, in line with the methods introduced by Antolín-Díaz and Rubio-Ramírez (2018) <doi:10.1257/aer.20161852>. Users can also estimate a model with sign, zero, and narrative restrictions imposed at once. The package facilitates predictive and structural analyses using impulse responses, forecast error variance and historical decompositions, forecasting and conditional forecasting, as well as analyses of structural shocks and fitted values. All this is complemented by colourful plots, user-friendly summary functions, and comprehensive documentation including the vignette by Wang & Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.48550/arXiv.2501.16711>. The 'bsvarSIGNs' package is aligned regarding objects, workflows, and code structure with the R package 'bsvars' by Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.bsvars>, and they constitute an integrated toolset. It was granted the Di Cook Open-Source Statistical Software Award by the Statistical Society of Australia in 2024.

Last updated 3 days ago

bayesian-inferenceeconometricsvector-autoregressionopenblascppopenmp

6.24 score 13 stars 10 scripts 308 downloads